A Matter For Machines

Executive orders from the White House so far appear to be the readiest arrow in the Trump administration’s quiver for hot-button, high-stakes political issues like Middle East refugees and cutting federal red tape. Fired recklessly and without counsel or apparent expert advice they are sure to sow chaos and discord, likely by design. What will happen when the administration’s missives start to address the outstanding military and strategic questions about game-changing battlefield advances like AI and robotics? It is worth re-reading the Politico story from late December, “Killer Robots Await Trump’s Verdict” that tackled this question before the tumult of Inauguration Day and the reshuffling of the National Security Council that favors politicking over military and intelligence acumen (the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Director of National Intelligence are no longer deemed essential to meetings of top officials during a crisis but top political advisors are.) Read the Politico story.

As I said in the story, “We’re on the doorstep of what armed conflict looks like in the 21st century” and robotics and autonomy are going to play decisive roles in the air, on the ground, under the sea and in cyberspace. What that role is depends in large part on the initiatives of the Trump administration — or how they respond to other nations and groups who use these capabilities first.

During a recent podcast with Army Capt. Jake Miraldi of West Point’s Modern War Institute about future conflict, we got into a range of future-conflict questions from who will lead innovation around AI/autonomy, what will we do with bad advice from machines, will technology disruption shock the US military, and whether an algorithm might one day be writing my novels for me (and doing a better job…). Listen to the MWI podcast “Autonomy on the Battlefield.”

Really Big Risks

As the Trump administration gets down to work making its mark on the first 100 days in office, its members would be wise to remember that the next national security risks are so new they’re almost impossible to comprehend, let alone see.

This is where science fiction comes in. The right novel or short story can bring existential threats down to Earth, and make them seem solvable with the right recipe of science, heroes, and villains.

Read more at the Atlantic Council’s Art of the Future Project.

New Short Fiction: UNDERBELLY

If the US slashes its involvement in NATO in the near-future, how might the alliance respond to Russian aggression in the Baltics? This short story, UNDERBELLY, explores the intersection of narrative combat, irregular warfare and great power conflict against a backdrop of NATO’s strongest nations lacking the American military might they depended on for decades. 

The major general had forged his 31-year career in the British Army by sheer will, be it through SAS selection, stultifying desk jobs, Iraq, Afghanistan, a PhD in Russian literature, and much more. But just getting his fork from the plate to his mouth required more strength than he’d ever had. Two peas, nested in cold mashed potatoes, perched upon the tines. The room’s sole candle cast a long shadow across the tabletop, the mobile phone flipped screen-down next to an untouched, perfectly creased paper napkin. An inch off the plate was as far as he could get. It had been 18 hours since he’d last eaten but there was just no room in his stomach for food anymore. The profound need to prevail would sustain him until this was all over.

“Sir, you have a few more minutes,” said his aide, an American Army colonel, Shane Williams. “I can see if the kitchen can make something else, have them send it back.”

Maj. Gen. Hugh Fessenden shook his sizeable head and stood up, brushing non-existent crumbs from his jeans and thick brown sweater. He clutched his phone in his bony right hand. The totem of his anxiety. He stood a head shorter than Williams, yet the American looked at him with real admiration. The Cotswold countryside English pub, the Eagle Inn, was older than the United States. In another hundred years, this would be seen as a historic place and moment. Fessenden was the man making it happen. Williams was one of the few American uniformed military advisors still working with NATO since the United States pulled all of its land forces out of Europe two years ago. He would have a front-row seat to history, which was why he had joined the military more than 20 years ago.

Read more at West Point’s Modern War Institute.

Don’t Laugh, This Is Serious

Comedy is an essential tool to understand everything from global trends to local politics for multiple reasons: the comedic process requires a rigorous understanding of your subject, similar to that of an analyst. It is the product of non-linear thinking, usually using narrative and dialogue, to open minds to new ideas and to see the world around them more clearly. In his history of American comedy, The Comedians, Kliph Nesteroff says that “[t]he struggle of the funny performer has remained a symbiosis of drive, jealousy, heartbreak, and triumph.” Comedy can offer the same and sometimes better insights than policy analysis. And let’s face it, no matter who you supported in the election, we all need a laugh now more than ever.

Read more of my essay with Alex Ward at War On The Rocks.

Sacred Assumptions

US Pacific Command recently added Ghost Fleet to its professional development books and film list, which in the words of PACOM commander Admiral Harry Harris “is a selection of good books — novels and non-fiction — and movies that tries to reflect the breadth and depth of issues that cover what we all do at United States Pacific Command.” It’s an honor to have our novel added to professional military reading lists, particularly for the combatant command focused on the future of the Asia Pacific region. Ghost Fleet features in the list’s fiction section, alongside Asia-focused titles such as The Orphan Master’s Son and War Trash.

What Ghost Fleet can do is help open up conversations about some of the uncomfortable gaps between how the US defense establishment has viewed the future of conflict and what it might actually be like in the coming decade. In the past, such comments and conversations could be a professional liability, but today they are a strategic necessity. That is how the book’s value is described: “This novel, about future war, challenges some sacred assumptions about the composition of our armed forces, the strengths of our new systems, and even the way we fight.”

See the full PACOM reading list.

Fictional Interludes

To really capture any senior leader’s attention requires more than white papers or Power Point slides, however. That is why the Atlantic Council’s Global Risks 2035 report includes short stories from the Art of the Future project as “Fictional Interludes” to help officials not just understand but to experience possible tomorrows. To fully consider possible futures featuring super-empowered individuals coalescing into supranational groups with state-like power or game-changing technologies like behavior modeling that can reshape entire generations it is useful to read more broadly — fiction.

Read more at The Art of Future Warfare Project website.

Holding Sway No More?

There is a paradigm shift underway in the international defense marketplace, and it’s led by nations evolving from longtime Western customers and production partners into worldwide sellers. Nations such as Israel, South Korea, Brazil, as well as Russia and China, have enormous potential to rewrite the rules of the twenty-first-century defense business—and America’s military relationships.

It’s true that the biggest defense exporter remains the United States, accounting for 45 percent of $175.5 billion in global arms purchases in 2015, according to Avascent Analytics. As well, Western European firms from allies such as the United Kingdom and France contributed 14 percent globally, according to Avascent data, giving America and its closest European partners a majority position at 59 percent of the market.

Yet for how much longer, though, can the United States count on holding sway over allies—and influence the balance of power in entire regions—through arms sales as it did during the twentieth century?

Read more at The National Interest.

New Short Fiction: Discards

Like a lot of great short science-fiction stories, Discards is born out of a desire to understand a  technological question on a human level. In this case, it is exploring the worth — and worthlessness — of new military inventions. What will the aftermath of a future war in Europe fought with game-changing weapons look like? What will happen to the machines and humans caught up in the chaos and destruction? You can read the full story at West Point’s Modern War Institute.

Tap. Tap. Tap. Tap. Tap. Tap.

“You hear that?”

Banging like a hammer on a nail. Then three more precise taps. Faster this time.

Silence.

“What?”

“Kick the ball again, at that one container, Wiz, just like you did,” said Lieutenant Evelyn Guerrero.

Tap. Tap. Tap.

The Army lieutenant nodded her helmet at the rows of dark green Conex shipping containers lined up next to the burned-out town’s soccer stadium. A banner for the Finnish national team – 2026 World Cup finalists — somehow had survived the past six months of fighting but fluttered limply in the wind like a dirty bandage. The intel brief Guerrero downloaded on arriving at the depot site earlier that day indicated a dozen or so kids lived around the stadium, but the orphans hadn’t shown their faces.

Wisnowski dribbled the sagging orange ball back about ten paces, then he kicked it hard against the side of the container again. The impact left a faint smudge of chocolate-colored mud, joining dozens more on the matte olive paint. The ball flopped back onto the grass, air wheezing out of the bullet holes that robbed it of its bounce months ago.

Wisnowski shrugged. “Ma’am?”

“Take off your helmet, Private. It’s just us.”

“LT, that wise? Gonna be dark soon and milfeed said some Russian gnats around. I like my lungs just the way they are. No cheeseburger milkshake for me.”

“That’s why I started smoking, Wiz. Gnats can’t see through it,” Guerrero said. She wagged the unlit cigarette in the corner of her mouth. It was an unfiltered Chinese cigarette from a carton she’d found in a disabled Russian Armata tank back in the town square. That tank had the telltale snakebite impact holes from the double-barreled Derringer rail guns her unit towed behind its Strykers. It was a mess inside, but the smokes were somehow untouched. “Trust me, Wiz.”

Read the full story at West Point’s Modern War Institute website.

What We Know About the Future of War

Aviation Week and Space Technology asked me and Peter Singer to contribute an essay on the future of war to their centennial issue that explored the coming decades of aviation and aerospace. It was an honor to be asked, and to have our writing appear alongside aerospace greats Burt Rutan and Sir Richard Branson.

The wars of the future might start by accident, such as by a pilot hot-dogging and bumping into another plane, the loss and outrage from the accident escalating into outright battle. Or they might be driven by some crisis boiling over, a dispute over a new policy or even a new island, with other powers drawn into the fight by old alliances. Alternatively, the conflicts might reflect deliberate choices to go to war, perhaps to avenge an old wrong or remake a new world order to reflect emergent economic and military powers.

The cause and course of such future conflicts are unpredictable, but there are some things we can be certain of.

Read the essay at Aviation Week & Space Technology.

A New Tool To Question Assumptions

This week the paperback edition of Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War goes on sale. This is a big milestone for the book, and for me. Paperback thrillers and science fiction novels were a staple of my reading when I was young. This is the version of Ghost Fleet that a younger me would have nodded off with and cracked open at first light.

The impact a novel, particularly a sci-fi story, can have in the national security community is growing. Ghost Fleet is part of that shift. Adm. Harry Harris, who heads up US Pacific Command, said in a recent Foreign Policy article that “warfare novels like Ghost Fleet help us to question assumptions and prevent complacent thinking that inhibits innovation.” It is an entertaining story, but it is a story written with this purpose in mind.

As the paperback edition debuts, help spread the word. This can be in person or online. If you enjoyed the book as entertainment or education (as in 4- or 5-star rating enjoyed it), head on over to the Goodreads page or the Amazon.com page and share that positive feedback by rating it. Even a quick star rating will help.

Useful fiction like Ghost Fleet can start conversations that are otherwise difficult to have about what makes us strong, and what weakens us, as a nation. A year from now, when you see a dog-eared, marked-up and torn paperback edition sticking out of a backpack or wedged under a cot you’ll know those kinds of talks are well underway.